Can Progression Betting Systems Overcome Negative Expectation (the House Edge)?

If you are a gambler, there is no doubt that you have heard of progression betting systems. If not, you will encounter them sooner or later. A progression betting system is any sequence of bets that change in size depending on whether you win or lose. Many such betting systems are being sold by unscrupulous persons who claim these systems can assure a gambler that he or she will make money from them.

In truth, however, no progression betting system used by itself can overcome the house edge and make you money. All progression betting systems are based in the (wrong) presumption that somehow you will get back what you lose, and all you have to do is stick with the system until that happens.

Well, it never happens. Casino games all have a negative expectation for the player. It's a fancy way of saying you will always lose more money than you will win in the long term. You may win in the short term, but if you keep playing (as many gamblers do even when they win - greed) you will lose what you won. This is due to the "house edge" - the mathematical advantage that a casino has over its gamblers. Casinos arrange their games in such a way as to give them a house edge - all the time.

No progression betting system working by itself can overcome the house edge. If you know a game has a negative expectation for the player, you can't win it using a betting system. If anything, a progression betting system would cause you to lose more money since it often requires you to bet more than you normally would (or by flat betting).

Progression betting systems are of two kinds: negative and positive. A negative progression system directs you to increase your bets each time you lose and decrease your bets every time you win. The opposite is true for positive types of betting systems.

The most infamous progression betting system is the Martingale system, a negative progression system. Many gamblers discover it on their own and foolishly get excited about it. After a losing bet, you multiply your bet by two for the next game. If you lose again, you multiply by two again. If you win, you go back to one betting unit. So that means once you win, you automatically cover all your losses plus a profit.

Sounds like a good idea? Yes, until you try it. The Martingale system will rapidly deplete a gambler's bankroll no matter how small his or her starting bet is. A starting wager of $5 would balloon to over $5,000 worth of losses if you were to get over a ten-hand losing streak (which does happen). Not to mention that casinos put betting limits so once you reach your limit the Martingale becomes useless.

There are other betting systems, but they are all ineffective by themselves. Their correct employment is when they are combined with advantage playing, such as blackjack card counting. A blackjack card counter, in fact, must use a sound betting system if he or she is to make the most out of the advantage that card counting gives. Then progression betting systems become a noble and useful idea.